The annual King’s Fund Social Care 3601 report was published at the beginning of March. So how is progress on a social care system fit for the 21st Century going? Well forgive me, as I’m going to bore you; indeed, I’m likely to bore myself. A stuck record.
Why? Because we’re still in the poor law and workhouse world of the Parish Guardians! Barely emerged from the 19th century, let alone the 20th, and a world away from where we should be.
Requests: More people, particularly working-age adults, are requesting support.
Requests for support are 9% higher than they were in 2015/16 but there is a significant age difference in the rates of growth. Among working-age adults requests have increased 22%, from 501,000 to 612,000 in 2021/22. Among older people, they have increased 4%, from 1.31 million to 1.37 million. Overall, the increase is 9%, from 1.81 million to 1.98 million. At this rate of growth, requests for support will exceed two million for the first time in 2022/23.
So, that equates to almost two million fellow citizens asking for help. Each and every one reaching out and I’d chaffer, in the vast majority of cases, not for much. So, what do they get?
Receipt of care: The number of people receiving long-term care has fallen again.
Since 2015/16, there has been a small increase in the number of working-age adults receiving long-term care, from 285,000 to 289,000 (1.4%) but a much larger fall in the number of older people receiving long-term care – down from 587,000 to 529,000 (10%). Overall, 818,000 people received long-term care in 2021/22 compared to 873,000 in 2015/16.
When increases in population size are taken into account, the fall is even starker. In 2015/16, slightly more than 6% of people aged over 65 were receiving long-term care but by 2021/22 this had fallen to slightly more than 5%. The percentage of the working-age population receiving long-term care was largely unchanged at around 0.8% in both years.
Therefore, need is increasing but delivery of services is reducing. Creating a huge pool of unmet need. Intolerably expensive and downright miserable.
‘Ah, though!’ the Parish Guardians say. ‘We are investing in neighbourhood level support. People don’t want to live in a care home, they want to stay at home. We are investing in “strengths based” and enabling approaches, focusing on the support available from an individual’s wider support network and community, rather than through the provision of formal long-term care and support.’
Really? The King’s Fund doesn’t appear to buy that and said, ‘However, it is noticeable that there has been no significant change in indicators that might suggest such an approach has been taken, such as support for carers (which has fallen since 2015/16), investment by local authorities in the voluntary sector (which has also fallen) and use of short-term care to maximise independence (ST-Max) (which has seen relatively modest increases in packages provided).’
Eligibility: Financial eligibility is tighter and reform has been put back.
By not increasing the threshold in line with inflation, successive governments have made the means test even meaner: it has become harder for people to get publicly funded social care, reducing its cost to the taxpayer.
This is an inevitable consequence of our obsession with looking at social care as a ‘budget cost’! Tightening criteria fuels failure demand, increases overall system costs and increases misery.
Spending: Total expenditure has increased due to the COVID-19 pandemic and is now higher than in 2010/11. Higher than in 2010! That’s over a decade ago! A million more people are now over 65 than in 2010.
Costs: Local authorities are paying more for care home places and home care.
In March 2021, the National Audit Office reported a Department of Health and Social Care assessment that most local authorities paid below the sustainable rate for care home placements for adults aged over 65 and below the sustainable rate for home care. It also noted estimates that self-funders pay around 40% more for their care in care homes and around £3 more per hour for home care than publicly funded clients. The rates paid by local authorities for home care remain below the Homecare Association’s minimum price of £21.43 for 2021/22.
Vacancies: The staff vacancy rate is the highest since records began.
Between 2020/21 and 2021/22, the vacancy rate rose sharply from 7.0% to 10.7% and the number of vacancies rose from 110,000 to 165,000. The gap between the vacancy rate in social care and that in the wider economy has grown to 4.3%.
In my experience of running services, high vacancy rates are the single biggest impactor on quality of the service provided. This level of vacancies is unsustainable and a safeguarding issue.
Pay: Care workers’ pay continues to rise but struggles to compete with other sectors.
However, pay in other sectors has been increasing more quickly. In 2012/13, care workers were paid more than retail sales assistants but by 2019/20 they had been overtaken. Many care workers would be paid more in entry-level posts in supermarkets. Care work is one of the most emotionally skilled and positively impactful roles in our economy. This situation is exploitation.
Carers: Fewer unpaid carers now receive paid support and respite care has also fallen.
Unpaid carers – usually, but not always, family members – contribute care equivalent to four million paid care workers to the social care system. Without them, the system would collapse. The carer community is the bedrock of social care. We ignore them at our peril.
Quality: Quality is largely stable but fewer ratings were published during COVID-19.
Far fewer ratings have been published in recent years – only 5,081 in 2021/22 compared to 13,337 in 2019/20.
I think it is almost impossible to make any accurate assessment of the quality of registered services at present. The inspection regime is so far behind in relation to inspections, and the omnishambles of confusion over the lack of a properly evaluated and evidenced regulatory framework makes it a muddle of apples and pears.
Personalisation: Fewer people receive direct payments.
Direct payments are intended to allow people using care services more choice and control over their own support. They were intended as a key route to reform of social care in the Care Act 2014. The number of people using direct payments fell from 118,000 in 2020/21 to 117,000 in 2021/22.
The number of people using direct payments is now lower than in 2015/16 and has fallen for each of the past five years. Overall, just 26.7% of people (38.4% of working-age adults and just 15.5% of older people) drawing on adult social care use direct payments, down from 28.1% in 2015/16.
This is a systemic manifestation of the deadening hand of the Parish Guardians. Direct payments are the ‘key route’ into diversifying and energising the social care offer. Taking the power from the system and giving it to those who draw on services is the way to catapult social care into the 21st Century.
Satisfaction: Satisfaction of people using services is edging downward.
In 2021/22, only 36.3% of carers report they are ‘extremely satisfied’ or ‘very satisfied’ with the services and support received by themselves and the people they care for; 8.5% of respondents say they are ‘extremely dissatisfied’ or ‘very dissatisfied’. The 2021 British Social Attitudes survey of satisfaction with social care also reports low levels of satisfaction among people who have used or had contact with services, with 66% dissatisfied. This survey includes both publicly and privately funded care.
If anything was to scream failure, then these satisfaction statistics should be an indicator. In most realms 66% satisfaction would be ‘could try harder’ but here we have 66% dissatisfied!
If the dashboard of a plane was showing these kinds of trends, then we would be scrambling for the parachutes.
What conclusions?
Our social care system is failing consumers on every front. Yet, we carry on doing the same over and over again. Reform is always just out of reach. The report speaks of the ‘Dog that did not bark’ in 2022. Well, isn’t it time to reflect that we haven’t got a mute dog, we’ve got an ex-parrot.
The report paints a bleak and groundhog picture of our system. Bedevilled by short termism, lack of courage and wilful denial, this has led to us failing on all measures. Surely the Government understands the concepts of opportunity cost and failure demand. Why does a Government, usually vocal in its support for functioning markets and consumer sovereignty, persist in perpetrating the current antediluvian command economy approach? Deficit assessments, shrinking eligibility criteria, tariffs and dysfunctional regulation. No power in the system for those drawing on services.
If the 360 in 2023, 2024, 2025, etc. isn’t going to just say the same, we must grasp the nettle.
Direct payments must become dominant. Local authorities must move from commissioning to helping consumers navigate. Only when the power is in the hands of the consumer, will the system shift to enabling preventative neighbourhood-based approaches, maximising value demand and reducing misery.
John Seddon explains that any industry’s capacity to provide a service is occupied by two types of customer demands: ‘value demand’ and ‘failure demand’. The former deals with the customers’ expectations: the valuable services that they have a right to expect and should be provided. If industry fails to provide these services, then customers will keep returning with the same problem. Now, a vicious cycle sets in: the failure to supply value has created unnecessary demand, which further eats into the industry’s capacity to create value.
We are stuck in failure demand. Insisting on providing, or not providing at all, that which the system thinks is best. We must move to value demand whereby the system meets the consumers’ expectations first time. This will only happen when the consumer has the power.
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